Twin Butte Energy Ltd TBTEF

Do the math

[bshort92]

248 million shares at $2.15 a share =$533.20 million market cap. Debt at $205 million. TBE's enterprise value is $738.20 million. If production is 17,100 boe's/d then TBE trades at $43,200 per flowing boe and without debt $31,180. They pay a conservative (under 30% annual cash flow)  dividend over 8% annual yield probably sustainable amid $95 WTI with large hedge positions established in both 2013 and 2014. Heavy oil differentials have gone from $42 per boe to app. $26 per boe. Yet investor pessimism in the issue peaked over the production shortfall at Primate. BTE, RE, PXL.V etc. did not report production issues on their wells. Guess the freezing weather just singled out TBE. The others don't even employ a heavy oil geo science expert like TBE extols. Imagine that. Also their BOD members don't dump shares if/when occasional production issues are known only to a select few a month prior to full public disclosure of the events either. That issue in and of itself gives off a tremendous stench. This share price meltdown has been sudden, severe and has sapped all trust from institutional and retail investors. Can more downside be expected? Or can this outfit correct the problems and restore some equilibrium to this free falling story? From a valuation standpoint the shares seem cheap and offer value. But is the operational team at TBE capable of getting their arms around the assets including the acquired five properties and turn the skepticism into a stable concern? Right now the people trading the shares are acting like the firm is extremely distressed and is not going to survive as an ongoing concern in its present structure. Conclusion: They either grew too fast and too recklessly or they are setting this firm up for a takeout. Because right now that appears the only way any value can be unlocked from this meltdown.