RE: RE: the whole @stocking99, I'm hoping you're right about an easy money day,
because I picked up several thousand new shares today myself.
If my hunch is correct, then this is a dip that I've been waiting for (see my comments posted on January 8).
I scanned several bits of news to get a sense for this recent sell-off.
Unless insiders know something that I don't, then much of this selling is probably premature.
My conclusion is that much of this selling is from nervous fieldmice, terrified of another 2008 scenario.
The Lehman crash of late 2008 has left many investors emotionally scarred when it comes to investing.
The result is that many hit the "sell" button, in a terrified panic, at the slightest hint of negative news.
My quick and dirty analysis has uncovered the following. It's winter!
Yes, it's winter, so there is no news, and at this time, it seems that "no news is bad news".
As the winter doldrums set in, and Christmas bills have to be paid, then few think of homebuying.
This week, the small bit of news that did come shocked the market. "House starts fall in January"
Actually the more accurate headline was "House starts lowered than expected, building permits are up"
So - house starts fell in January, it's true, but year-over-year they are up vs. the same month last year.
Now, last winter was one of the mildest winters in North American meteorological history.
Many locations had hardly any snow, and the weather was exceedingly mild.
In this environment, home building was bound to be higher last year, as more people could be outside.
So what's actually happened this year?
This winter has been closer to normal, with closer to averge snowfalls occurring.
As a result, homebuilders can not be outside working for as many days as compared to last year.
Accordingly, one might expect homestarts to fall, yet they were still higher year-over-year.
To repeat, despite worse weather this winter compared to last winter, home starts were still higher.
Nevertheless, like a case of explosive diarrhea, nervous sellers will hit the sell button en masse.
That's fine, as I'm prepared to wait on this one.
I wasn't planning to increase my position, as I already have a good portion of my portfolio in this sector.
However, as I reflect on the situation, this "so-called" housing recovery hasn't even really started yet.
Annualized housing starts in the US are still below a million. The longterm average is closer to 1.5 million.
The US may not top 1 million annualized starts in the next six months, but eventually, it will come.
Unlike Japan, the US population is still growing.
Unlike Europe, people in the US still like to own a single-family home (let's call it the barbecue culture),
and unlike Canada, US home prices are dirt cheap, with mortgage rates at unbelievably record lows.
Seems to me to be reasonable expecations for continued growth.
The naysayers will always be out there.
And those shell-shocked from 2008 will still prematurely hit the sell button for some time to come
As a result, there could continue to be some wicked volatility.
However, patience is the game...
Just ask yourself, if you honestly believe that the average American has somehow changed, and somehow no longer desires a single family home. The day may came for a culture shift of that magnitude, but I don't expect to see it in my lifetime.
If I'm wrong, then mea culpa, however I still think with an improving economy, then US housing will continue to improve, and the lot of many lumber companies will also continue to improve.
Good luck to all with your investing.