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Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF V.PCY


Primary Symbol: PCY

The investment seeks to track the investment results (before fees and expenses) of the DBIQ Emerging Market USD Liquid Balanced Index (the underlying index). The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its total assets in U.S. dollar-denominated government bonds from emerging market countries that comprise the underlying index. The underlying index measures potential returns of a theoretical portfolio of liquid emerging market U.S. dollar-denominated government bonds.


ARCA:PCY - Post by User

Post by riverrockon Mar 04, 2013 8:16pm
266 Views
Post# 21077043

Looking back...

Looking back...

 

Back in November of 2012 PCY's website had a presentation on the Power Plant (PP) that stated that PCY  would have a 40% Participating Interest by contributing $220 million over four years, starting 2013 and ending 2016 at $60M, $64M, $59M, $37M respectively. That presentation has since been removed from the PCY website.

 

The dates of the various increments of the loan indicate that the payments could be possibly applied to each for the various 150MW of the 600MW PP. I'm unsure if this $220M would be PCY contribution in the PP's CAPEX, or for its job to provide the frame work to get the PP on line.

What I mean to say, the total monies to build the PP proper might be loaned to the partners as a group and funds from the PP's operation would pay the CAPEX and the $220M would be PCY's debt.

 

If such occurred PCY could/would have the tools to move forward, but getting the $220 million dollar loan Could/would be the problem. But, not if they presented to the lender'(s) the following idea. That PCY would only pay interest until the first 150MW unit came on line and their after pay P&I on the entire loan (for a 10 year loan paid annually with interest below 6%) . It might be possible because funds from PCY's 40% interest in the PP would help pay it.

 

The loan could be so structured, that if PCY in in arrears in payments on the 10th year, that the lender'(s) would obtain an agreed upon equity interest in PCY at that time. Such a loan would show confidence in PCY when they agree to lend PCY the $220M to move the PP forward

 

Having a 40% interest in Chandgana 600MW PP and monies that can be banked before the respective $60M, $64M, $59M, $37M in payments required from 2013 to 2016 would place a conservative view on PCY, while dilution would be limited to the recent 60M share float.

 

Most important PCY would have funds from their 40% interest in the Power Plants after tax profits to pay the loan:

 

Most important is that PCY's earning potential would be 40% of Chandgana Power Plants earnings

During its first three years power production would increase from (150MW. to 300MW to 450MW) and average 300MW annually, then over the next 4 years power production would be 600 MW annually, giving a seven year annual average of .~470MW which a 40% Participating Interest should help pay the $220M loan.

Ulaan Ovoo could well been in production for most of those years and the other Chandgana coal deposits could possibly be shipping naturally air dried coals with higher kcal ratings to other Power Plants in Mongolia. Removing half to three quarters of the water content from a tonne of the Changana area coals would lower their shipping cost. In addition there would be the profit from 80% of the coal sales supplying the Chandgana Power Plant Then there is the possibility of PCY's interest in Wellgreen being sold or prepared for years of production and they would be in a much better position relative to purchasing the Tethys claims.

 

When considering the potential of the positive developments as outlined in the above paragraph taking on a loan at a fair rate of interest should be advantageous to PCY's long term development.

 

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