My take on surge Here is a number of things about surge:
1. Their PUD is huge and they have included in their reserves the waterflood (who knows if it is going to work): looks like most if not all of their reserves are fully booked. So $8 per share thingee is out of the window (still more than 2.79 though imho).
2. Generally there is not anything too wrong about a company acquiring others to increase their reserves (cpg does it a lot) but i personally dont like such approach especially if it is for reserves replacement and not growth.
3. Changing a completion technique could either mean production from similar pool was not working as good as they expected or they were trying to make up for missed production by changing the completion technique. Either way, the fact that it is not working is worse!
4. The debt is very high.
5. Unexpected outage is a very bad sign that put investors confidence of management down.
6. Missing guidance quarter over quarter is not easily forgiven by investors.
7. As soon as the ercb is invovled investors freak out
All in all, i think there is an overreaction but the stock is not worth 6 nor 8. imho i think this stock is worth ~ $4