RE: RE: RE: Bye Bye VCA! Thx for the double double Well, good luck.
For all it's worth, the share price has also doubled since I've taken my initial holding; however my investment strategy varies from yours. I prefer to hang onto my winners (it's my losers that I sell) until there is some fundamental reason that I perceive may prevent further price appreciation. With VCA, I have yet to see any possible reason that would warrant selling. Yes, we've had a nice, steady climb over the last few months, but as I've posted here before, I have little doubt that there is some underlying fundamental reason to warrant that climb which should be revealed in the near future. We keep forming higher highs (today) as well as higher lows.
As for those fundamentals...
** average daily production in 2013 is expected to increase approximately 107% over average 2012 rates to 620 bbl/d,
** VCA has stated that increased production will provide a 100% year over year increase in annual cash flow to 0.16 / share in 2013
** capex for 2013 is projected at $15 million - funded entirely through cash flow and VCA's credit facility rather than dilutive share issuances
** applying a modest price to cash flow multiple of 3-4 equates to a share price of 0.50 - 0.64 based on these multiples (22%-56% above current prices)
** management has stated that they have rebuffed offers in the past for the co., saying they want to grow the co. further before selling (undoubtedly at a significant premium)...as they've done in the past
** has been some significant accumulation from some institutions including Dundee, Macquarie (not to mention that ever mysterious Anonymous)
Given all these factors, as I stated above, I continue to hold and am looking forward to Q4 / year ends which should be released in the next month and will hopefully shed further light on those fundamentals listed above - fundamentals which I believe will continue to drive the share price higher.
Have a good evening.