A reasonable sale price.... 5 to 6 times EBITDA. So the EBITDA is the question. If 2012 EBITDA is used with a multiple of 6 that would be a total purchase price of $360 million. If a purchaser looks at the proforma EBITDA with the utilization at 85% with the high margin heli-rigs back on a long term agreement the EBITDA on a proforma basis would be $85 million. So even 5 times this number is $425 million. If the fully diluted share base is ~400 million and the net debt remains at ~$225 million, the equity on a pershare basis would sell for 35 cents and in the second scenario the equity would sell for ~50 cents a share. The asset base is good, the geography they operate is good both from a growth market as well as being condusive to year round operations with no shut down.
$60 million of EBITDA in 2012 is nothing to sneeze at and 2012 was a lousy year thanks to our friends at HRT. I hope they hit oil (rather than stranded natural gas) big time so they can issue a bunch of new equity to raise money and do the right thing and compensate Tuscany for the hardship they endured largely as a result of their default. Also, remember that Tuscany already has the assets avaliable to generate at least $80m of EBITDA which can easily service their debt even as is.
I think IMO the best they are going to be able to pull off with a sale is 35 to 50 per share. Of course I hope I am wrong, but either of these would be a far cry from where the share price is currently.