RE: RE: RE: cash flow spreadsheet q4/12 q3/12 Using recent sale metrics of very oil weighted production, but not even at PRY's net back, you can value flowing barrels at $100,000. So even assuming that the 4246 average decreases to 4000, the increase is 1270 flowing barrels which at $100m would be valued at $127 million compared to the debt taken on to secure it. I don't see it as that bad. Not great but not horrible.
You are right about debt levels and capital plan...my guess is that they will further scale back capex to keep debt flat, or about $110 million in capex and cash flow. This will allow a little primary production growth while the waterflood kicks in some secondary production growth. Not great, but not horrible.
Eventually though they have to grow the inventory of primary production wells ahead of the waterflood program. At least they have a reasonable inventory going in. Dare I say it, not great but not horrible.
Apply the same thoughts to Arcan or Second Wave and you get closer to horrible.
There will be some new metrics being spun of the Lone Pine difficulties by mid-June.
Terr