GREY:OLEPF - Post by User
Post by
Freegatoon Jun 15, 2013 2:50am
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Post# 21528601
The deal.....
The deal..... A little bit of speculation!
If I were Randgold, I would not make an offer for OLE right now as I would make the price skyrocket and overpay at the end of the day.
- The motivations from MDL (16% of TGZ) and Bendon (43.5% of OLE) to me seem to be the same: MDL to preserve its original value and Bard to recover their investment at the 2009 value levels plus a reasonable premium based on the value of the deposit and not on market value.
- Bard (13% of OLE) has not said anything yet.
- IAMGOLD (11% of OLE) said that they would end the lock up agreement if someone came with a higher price.
- Bendon will not allow TGZ to complete DD on OLE Oz. so OLE Oz. stands about 6.11 MM Reserve+Indicated). TGZ stands at 4.45MM Reserve + M&I (please correct me on these).
- Then they both need to take control on either side of the transaction. The main result of Bard suing OLE is to gain the right to become the operator of the join venture therefore control of the JV. The main result of the appointment of directors by MDL to the board of TGZ is to control TGZ!!
- Now a mill with no ore is not worth much; it’s just sunk money. An Oz. of gold in the ground above 2.0g/ton in Africa without a mill is about $19.00/Oz. Now; a n Oz. of gold in the ground at 2.59g/ton-Masato and 3.83g/ton-Golouma Deposits (this one actually closer to Randgold’s Massawa) with a starving mill; I think can be value at about $44.00/Oz.
- If the transaction goes ahead as offered by TGZ and everyone is paid in TGZ shares, TGZ would be diluted to about 430 MM shares.
- If the Mackies guys are correct and the market goes into frenzy and the price shoots to $2.20/share after a deal; Then a big producer ( Randgold?) would have to pay about $950. MM for the whole package.
- On the other hand If we consider the reserves and the measured and indicated resources of both companies 6.11 + 4.45 = 10.56 MM Oz. at $44.00/Oz. in the ground and value TGZ plant and equipment at about 210 MM. then the white knight would have to come with only about 675 MM to have them both.
- I think chet, allan, Mustafa, and Nic would jump heads first on this one ….LOL
This is just my humble opinion; with a little bit of financial max-turbant-xion… LOL
FG