a five bagger not good enough? Etc,
Secretly, I hope for more than 50 cents per share, and I think it's absolutely possible, but in this Venture exchange blood bath, it's hard to have such big dreams. For long-term holders with a higher cost basis, they may not get back to even. I lost money twice in TCF, I'm back in it again. I might not make up the money I lost.
However, I simply can''t imagine a scenario in which this company is worth less today than it was 3 months ago, 6 months ago, 1 year ago or 2 or 3 years ago. Obviously, there's been significant equity dilution, but this is now a fullly-diluted market cap of $33 million. The company has referenced a $400-$700 million per TCF figure for well over a year in their corp. presentations. Let's say a TCF is only worth $100 mm. Then say that the net 8 TCF becomes net 2 TCF because the company has to give-up 75% of its holdings to avoid significant further equity dilution-- That's still leaves us with $200 million of value, or 60 cents per share.
Is a $100 million per TCF assumption still too agressive? I don't know, but one thing that would invalidate the company's high assumptions would be if the price of nat gas domestically and for export were to fall materially. My understanding is that prices remain strong.
Alternatively, if someone can convince me that the fundamental potential of Coal Bed Methane in Indonesia is not what the company implies, then I would be less excited about the stock, even at 10 cents per share.
No matter how small a probability one wants to place on the possibility of a 10x-20x return, that possibility is exits. The ONLY reason to sell CBM Asia stock at 10 cents per share is if one thinks that the stock will go to 5 cents per share or lower in the next year. I don't think it will.
Having said that, am I surprised that the stock is currently at 10 cents? Yes!