Some aassuption relative to a PPAThere are Assumption in the figures below, but here they are.
Based info on Tariffs per user type from “The Energy Regulatory Commission of Mongolia” given in the link below and using recent Mongolia Currency values of 1.557.5 Mongolian MNT to One US $ and given electric use percentage for Miners from in the link along with my own percentages for other user types, the average Tariff comes to an average tariff of ~$0.069 per kWH.
If one used the visual average of pre 2009 values of ~1.150 for the Mongolia MNT the above tariff expressed in US $, the avrage Tariff comes to: 0.069 x 1,557.5/1,150, or US $0.0935 per kWH. See 10 year chart of the MNT versus the US $.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MNT&view=10Y
Does anyone have a good ballpark figure of how high Tariff costs could be above Power Price Agreements PPA's? I'm using the reciprical of 1.25 or 80%.
https://www.mongoliaeconomy.com/?p=9797
The Energy Regulatory Commission of Mongolia announced that from 5th August 2013 electricity prices will be increased. The Mongolian energy sector faces a loss of over 60 billion MNT if it continues to use the current system and electricity tariffs.
As well as the increase in tariff, residents will pay an additional monthly-based fee depending on the total square meter of their apartment or house. This will be enforced throughout the country. Residents living in up to 40m² apartment will be liable to pay a fee of 3000 MNT per month, 5000 MNT for 40m²-80m² and 10,000 MNT for any house or apartment over 80m².
Electricity prices have remained the same for over two years. The tariff for apartment dwellers in Ulaanbaatar city, Aimag centres and towns is currently 74 MNT per kilowatt whereas the current price for ger district residents is 71 MNT per kilowatt if using up to 150kw hours per month. From August 5th the price for all residential properties will increase to 79 MNT per kilowatt for 150 kwh per month. Residents using 150-250 kwh per month will pay 90.85 MNT per kilowatt compared to the current tariff of 76-79 MNT.
Non-residential consumers will also be subject to an increase in electricity price. Extracting and processing industries in the mining sector will now pay 130 MNT per kilowatt, an increase of 30 percent. Other industries will pay an additional 20 percent on top of the 88 MNT per kilowatt of electricity they are currently paying.
Estimated electric power use (Percentage per Category)
Mines, 40% from link
Business, 15%, my estimate
Residential (from 150 to 250 kWH)30.02%, my estimate
Residential (less than 150 kWH)14.98%, my estimate
Currency Conversion (Recent)
US $1.0 = 1,557.5 MTN (Mongolian MNT)
Present Factor, 1.0/1557.5 or US $0.00064
Currency Conversion (prior to 2009)
US $1.0 = 1,150.0 MTN (Mongolian MNT)
Factor prior to 2009, 1.0/1,150 or US $0.00087
Time period factor 0.00087/0.00064 = 1.36
I believe Mongolia's currency will strengthen to 1,150 MNT per US $ circa the 2016/2017 time based on Mongolia's growing economy.
kWH Estimate per Category
Mines (130/1.557.5)0.40 = 0.03339
Other Business' [(1.20 x 88.0)/1.557.5]0.15 = 0.01017
Residential using from 150 to 250 kWh (90.85/1.557.5)0.302 = 0.01762
Residential use less than 150 kWH = (79/1.557.5)0.1498 = 0.00760
Average Tariff
0.03339 + 0.01017 + 0.01762 + 0.00760 = 0.06877 per kWH
Possible Tarriff with stronger Mongolia MNT circa 201/.2017
0.06877 x 1.36 = US $0.094 kWH
If the PPA were 80% of the average Tariff for 2016/2017 time frame, the PPA could conceivably equate to US $ 0.0752 per kWH, or US $ 75.20 per MWh for Chandgana. Hpefully the assumptions made are correct.