GREY:NOVUF - Post by User
Comment by
naeden99on Aug 28, 2013 4:14pm
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Post# 21704391
RE:RE:RE:$1.10
RE:RE:RE:$1.10Do you have any basis for this?
My math shows that at $2.10, Novus would have an EV / Netback of 6.1x vs RRX at 8.5x.
I use annual production for 2013 and most recent quarter netback.
NVS numbers are from my model - 4,300 boe/day. Last quarter netback $51.88. ~$81 mm annualized netback.
RRX @ 5,150 at $63.28 ~$107 mm annualized netback.
The only thing that would imply a $1.10-$1.20 take-out price is the current share price, not any valuation metrics. If they did get a $2.00 bid, I'll be very impressed at how well management kept it quiet and give them kudos for getting near full value even though the stock price didn't reflect it.
This may also be the reason that its a HK company and not RRX or WCP buying them - the 'sticker' shock of a high premium would be less important to the HK company than the actual financial returns.