A few open thoughtsFirst: What is up with this mtbrider guy? Brutal. I just arrived at the NBD board for the first time. I'm used to some degree or professionalism -- not a whole screen of mindless drivel. Like the other fellow says, get a blog. This is entirely unnecessary for one to monopolize a board with material that is not at all value added.
Onto something more productive: Credit Suisse notes that LPX coming for ANS ought to result in more market discipline. I.e., higher prices. Maybe this will take the form of running High Level at one shift for instance. So it will be interesting to see how and if OSB prices keep dropping.
CIBC has a $37 price target and they revised the Q3 OSB price to 270. It'll be worth noting the accuracy of this estimate. Regardless, it’s splitting hairs because nobody’s cash costs are in that range. Go into the low 200’s and it’s another story.
I'm also curious to see if LPX can piggyback on the ANS inroads into Asia. The parable here is how Canfor started this a decade ago with #3 and Economy -- used Asia as a clearing house for low grade. It divorced lumber prices for NA demand. They called it the "China effect." There is no OSB lows per se, but if it could be dumped even at cost it will have major ramifications in North America. Gotta make this stuff seem more scarce than it is to get the high prices rolling. I'm convinced that the perception of scarcity drivers prices and the traditionally irresponsible industry loves to flood the market. Hopefully LPX can help change that even though I'm sad to see ANS go. I wonder if GP or anyone else will come for NBD?
Finally, is anyone worried about a dividend cut? The rate is much too high right now IMO.
dosperros