Join today and have your say! It’s FREE!

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.
Please Try Again
{{ error }}
By providing my email, I consent to receiving investment related electronic messages from Stockhouse.

or

Sign In

Please Try Again
{{ error }}
Password Hint : {{passwordHint}}
Forgot Password?

or

Please Try Again {{ error }}

Send my password

SUCCESS
An email was sent with password retrieval instructions. Please go to the link in the email message to retrieve your password.

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.
Quote  |  Bullboard  |  News  |  Opinion  |  Profile  |  Peers  |  Filings  |  Financials  |  Options  |  Price History  |  Ratios  |  Ownership  |  Insiders  |  Valuation

Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

"Long Run Exploration Ltd is engaged in the development, exploration and production of oil and natural gas in western Canada."


GREY:WFREF - Post by User

Comment by JohnJBondon Oct 22, 2013 1:09pm
230 Views
Post# 21837859

RE:Those $6.00 calls for April were me today.

RE:Those $6.00 calls for April were me today.Funny how many people don't buy until its already gone up!

As for a take-over.    Sprott can block any take-over offer from succeeding, so bribes to mangement won't be enough to get this one prematurely.

When Sprott is ready to sell, it will be avaiable, and not before.

I don't think Sprott is looking for a quick flip.     My money says they can look past the 6 month horizon.     I suspect they are looking 5 to 7 years out, at 2018-2020, with NLG being exported out of North America, generating a fair value in the $9-10 mmcf, and a pipeline exporting oil into the pacific rim, and oil in the 120-150$/boe range, with corporate net backs of about $100 ish.    All combined with production increases of 10% per year, and 2018 exit being 45,000 ish boe, and 2020 being 54,000 ish.

Sprott can do the math.    For those who can't do the math, thats a forecast end of 2020 share price of about $90 per share.

No I don't expect Sprott to do allow a premature takeover in 2014.    Even if someone were to offer $30 per share in 2014, that would mean giving up 20% annual rate of return over the future 6 years!

To get the oportunity cost down to 10% a year (to 2020), a 2014 offer would have to be about $50 per share.    I don`t expect anyone to offer $50 per share.    Put in simple minded terms, the probability of a $50 per share offer in 2014, is the same as the probabliity of LRE being taken over in 2014.
<< Previous
Bullboard Posts
Next >>