GREY:LGVWF - Post by User
Comment by
terroiron Nov 08, 2013 12:29pm
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Post# 21889031
RE:RE:RE:Big jump in cash flow/netbacks
RE:RE:RE:Big jump in cash flow/netbacks Thanks for straightening that out Nawar, it has often been said that the forward strip was the right data point, but as you point out, the Cdn Par Average is closer to actual sales price. Good stuff, it increases my expected cash flow to about $17.5 million, bringing the year in at $67 million. If they spend cap ex in Q4 as guided and reaffirmed, the year could come in with total payout below 100%, closer to 96%. Time will tell, but looking solid.
I think you are right about the differentials, they are likely to shrink. Some concern though about WTI itself bottlenecking at the macro level with an over abundance of light oil. However, were that to be the case, the hedges kick in fully. What's more, I will double ckeck the presentation but I understand that some of the de-bottle projects will allow Canadian oil to access overseas markets at Brent pricing, perhaps even bringing back the positive differential on light oil.
Terr
Now, why didn't the stock react like LTS?