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Indonesia has announced its export ban of mineral ore will take place effective January 12th. Nickel traders, who have been starved from some positive news, have jumped on this tidbit of info and nickel is trading higher this morning. Now the story becomes - how much impact will this have on China, how soon will this impact take place, and how will it affect the supply/demand parameter of the refined nickel trade. One thing to keep in mind. This site was one of the first that put a lot of merit in the so called pig nickel production back when the rumors starting to surface, not necessarily because we understood what was happening, but because we follow history and history teaches that the Chinese people are some of the most resourceful in the world. Now, while 'pig' nickel production has become massive, it is heavily dependent on the import of low grade laterite ore from a few countries, the largest of these being Indonesia. The second largest source, the Philippines, can not fill the void. So how will China face this new dilemma? It will be interesting to watch, but based on history, they will find a way. In the mean time, nickel has found some footing, but with the threat of tapering concerns flooding the market once again, that footing will remain slippery.
https://www.sharenet.co.za/news/China_nickel_importers_strike_term_deals_with_eye_on_Indonesia_ore_ban/413cb10a87d31fdd837c352a1ba61c16
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-05/indonesia-to-press-ahead-with-ore-export-ban-in-14-wacik-says.html