Vanoil Energy Ltd VNLEF

Reconsidering some facts and rumors

[Fischlaender]

Actually, the more I think about it, either it is a giant very cleverly and deliberately executed mismanagement or (and this is what I am more and more leaning towards now) Vanoil is the victim of some deliberate mis-information. But they certainly do not help with their own information policy.

Facts
- The Kenya onshore licences have not been renewed
- The Kenya offshore licence has still not been transferred
- Vanoil and Secretary of Energy had some letter exchange with differing opinions shortly before Christmas
- The financials look ugly
- Vanoil has booked an impairment on Kenya aassets for the case the lincences will not be renewed
- Vanoil has not issued any statement regarding these latest challenges to renew the licences and the potential financial and asset implications, apart from stating it somehow in the Financials and MD&A
- Fluormin assets have not been sold
- The information policy of VEL is bad (to put it mildly)
- Vanoil will be presenting at the 5th Eastern Africa Oil, Gas/LNG & Energy Conference 2014 end of April


Speculations
- The Rwanda licences are gone (at least they are from the website and if you interpret the news which was somehow cryptic, information policy issue again)
- The Kenyan Government has decided to not renew the licences for good
- The rig is on site (though how they could afford that rig to be sitting idle for half a year..?)


The newspaper might have indeed come across these letters but whether they were the final episode is rather unlikely. If the discussions had been terminated that would have for sure constituted a material event which VEL would have reported, at least they did it with Rwanda.

And, the low volumes of trading actually speak against my earlier theory of insider dumping (apart from the fact that no insider sales were recorded on SEDI).

So I might have been wrong after all. Maybe worth a gamble, I would not sell now but exploit a drop if it occurs.