Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

Pain and valuations

[fullyautomatic]

Here are some numbers I have arranged in attempt to explain this P O S

 STOCK    P/CF           EV/DACF        EV/BOE/D           D/CF
LRE          2.4X              3.9X               41K                      1.5X
BIR           5.4X              7.1X               54K                      2.6X
WCP         5.3X              6X                  97K                      0.8X
TOG         5.2X               5.9X              102K                     0.8X

Notice how similar the numbers are in WCP and TOG. Also notice LRE carries twice the debt/cash flow.

But EV/BOE/D values LRE less than BIR (85% gas). The only companies cheaper on EV/BOE/D basis are Perpetual and Spyglass. Both are junk - 5.1x and 3.8x d/cf.

Here is what LRE SHOULD do.

1. Option/ jv the Duvernay land or outright sell it, can't afford to drill it anyway. Apparently they have 300k acres which seems like it is kept secret for some reason.

2. Force Sprott out. Do what Advantage just did with Longview. Sprott cannot be allowed to make any decisions, as they are incapable. I believe it was them who forced the dividend, clearly not something the market wanted.

3. Keep calm and get the sp $8+

Good Luck