GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Comment by
heraclituson Mar 03, 2014 4:43pm
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Post# 22274683
RE:Russian-Ukraine effect
RE:Russian-Ukraine effectOn the Ukraine thing, if Russia clearly offends UN/NATO/USA sensibilities while Poland, Turkey, Germany (not to mention the 40 million Ukrainians) get exercised there will have to be a response. No one will go nuclear over this which means no one is likely to go down the miliary path and intervene. The response then must be economic and there is only one commodity that really hurts the Russians and that is oil - ten million barrels a day or more than 10% of global production. Oil then would be the hole card. Now that USA is producting more oil than the Russians and have pretty much captured Canadian oil (4 million BOD) they will be more enclined to play that card. The bouncing around today is general market response to insecurity but if the insecurity mounts, the go-to resource would be oil. And the go-to price would trend up. My thoughts.