Estimated share prices for KRN (first 3 years of production)Below is an estimate of what could be the share price in the first 3 years of production. The only thing missing is the payment on the debt. I present 5 different scenarios of shares. I add 2 million shares every year for compensation (new options). I exclude the magnesium portion of production.
| | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Produced Amount MOP | 375,000 | 625,000 | 1,375,000 |
| Price MOP | 325 | 350 | 375 |
| Operating Revenue | 121,875,000 | 218,750,000 | 515,625,000 |
| | | | |
| Operating Expenditures | 80,699,381 | 83,120,362 | 180,230,785 |
| Transportation and marketing costs | 16,875,000 | 28,831,250 | 65,010,000 |
| General and administrative expenses | 3,500,000 | 3,500,000 | 7,232,000 |
| Operating profit before royalties, depreciation and taxes | 20,800,619 | 103,298,388 | 263,152,215 |
| | | | |
| Crown Royalties (about 4%) | 832,025 | 4,131,936 | 10,526,089 |
| Sask. Resource Surcharge (about 5%) | 1,040,031 | 5,164,919 | 13,157,611 |
| Potash production tax - Base tax | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Potash production tax - Profits tax | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Operating Profit before tax | 18,928,563 | 94,001,533 | 239,468,516 |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net Income | 18,928,563 | 94,001,533 | 239,468,516 |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| Number of shares (Different scenarios) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| # shares (scenario #1) | 50,000,000 | 52,000,000 | 54,000,000 |
| # shares (scenario #2) | 75,000,000 | 77,000,000 | 79,000,000 |
| # shares (scenario #3) | 100,000,000 | 102,000,000 | 104,000,000 |
| # shares (scenario #4) | 125,000,000 | 127,000,000 | 129,000,000 |
| # shares (scenario #5) | 150,000,000 | 152,000,000 | 154,000,000 |
| | | | |
| | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Earning per share (scenario #1) | 0.379 | 1.808 | 4.435 |
| Earning per share (scenario #2) | 0.252 | 1.221 | 3.031 |
| Earning per share (scenario #3) | 0.189 | 0.922 | 2.303 |
| Earning per share (scenario #4) | 0.151 | 0.740 | 1.856 |
| Earning per share (scenario #5) | 0.126 | 0.618 | 1.555 |
| | | | |
| P/E ratio (average POT, MOS, AGU) | 15.77 | 15.77 | 15.77 |
| | | | |
| | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Share price (scenario #1 = 50 m shares) | $5.97 | $28.50 | $69.92 |
| Share price (scenario #2 = 75 m shares) | $3.98 | $19.25 | $47.79 |
| Share price (scenario #3 = 100 m shares) | $2.98 | $14.53 | $36.30 |
| Share price (scenario #4 = 125 m shares) | $2.39 | $11.67 | $29.27 |
| Share price (scenario #5 = 150 m shares) | $1.99 | $9.75 | $24.52 |