GREY:STPJF - Post by User
Post by
adamsighton May 08, 2014 12:34pm
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Post# 22539232
A non qualified crazy take on shareholder value
A non qualified crazy take on shareholder valueI feel it would cost at least 500 million to build a plant like mckay and althought they seemingly have abandoned the idea of 12000 bpd I will base my evaluation on that.
With production in mind senlac at 3500 bpd would cost 125 million to get going. I am rounding up the advised costs to offset expenditures that may not be seen
Oil Asset value, noting the sale of non core assets at .29 a barrel was for best estimate contingent and not proved plus probable with pending application. But for this purpose I am saying its only worth .29
*According to news release
https://www.marketwired.com/press-release/southern-pacific-announces-188-million-non-core-asset-disposition-tsx-stp-1833757.htm
a best estimate contingent resources assignment of 64.6 million barrels (value .29 per barrel in the ground)
500 Million McKay cost to build
125 Million for Senlac cost to build
______________
625 Million
- 55 million for spacer wells Mckay to get to full capacity
- 10 million for ICDs Mckay to increase to mor capacity
- 15 million to drill out and get Senla up to capacity
- 90 million drawn on new loan
- 300 million in 1st term notes
-173 million in debentures
643 million total
__________
-18 million is the difference
+ assets of company in oil
105 million for 365 million barrels in the ground at mckay
114 million for 395 million barrels of non core which reflects tthe 89% of 444 million barrels
total is 201 Million - say 5% for the sale brokering
190 million divided by the 398 million shares
or .48 per share!!!!
Now I would like to see a breakdown from people who can tell us the difference in value between best etimate contingent oil in the ground and proved and probable oil in the ground.
Comments and projections please and thank you
A