RE:IfAnderson is interesting because the equity portion of the business is less significant than that of the debentures, at least if a takeover happens. The debentures are about 85 million I think, and in a takeover would be a fixed cost. The equity portion consists of 170 million shares with a floating value. The other interesting thing is that the valuation of the business depends on what tact you take. If you valued it on average production you are looking at 3200 boe/d with about a third oil and liquids. So you could probably use a figure of 50,000 a flowing barrel and get 160 million. So take off the debentures and divide by shares outstanding and your looking at 44 cents a share. If you looked at the exit target of 3700 boe/d with a higher liquids weighting of 40%, so a price of 55,000 per barrel and assumed they could build off that in 2015 you would get 203 million, so about 69 cents a share. The issue I see is that Anderson doesn't really have a huge amount of land, especially in the core Willesden Green area. I think I read that they have 9,000 acres, or something along those lines. This I would think would lead to some discounting from the flowing BOE/D numbers. This should be partially offset by their ownership of key facilites in the region that would be very helpful to an acquirer.
So blending these numbers together, along with the other factors, I think somewhere in the 45-50 cent range would be fair.
Any other opinions?