RE:RE:RE:cold winter betGood question -- I am not talking total injection over the year, I recognize the total storage level is slightly lower than this time last year or the 5 year average at this time. That is because there was a huge draw last winter and inventories got extremely low. So it takes huge injections to catch up to normal inventory levels. That has been happening since early spring.
What I am talking about is the weekly build rate that has been going on for last 8 months. This means each week the build far exceeds the weekly build this time last year and the 5 year average at this time. The latest storage report is yet another example of this. This has been happening consistently all year since the spring. Here is a summary of latest weeks inventory that came out today from Investing.com:
"The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended October 31 rose by 91 billion cubic feet, above expectations for an increase of 85 billion and compared to a gain of 87 billion in the previous week. Inventories rose by 35 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 42 billion cubic feet".
As you can see.. the 91 BCF build far exceeds the build at this time last year at 35 bcf and the 5 year average build of 42 bcf.
This means that supply is cranking out at a very high rate, so you can expect builds to continue until the weather gets really cold as supply is so strong. Thats why I think there will be more pressure on NG prices as it becomes evident that these builds continue even with colder weather creeping in. There will be frustration as we wait longer than anticipated for the first major winter draw. We are going to need some really cold weather for a sustained period to finally get material draws given the current rate of supply.