Teal Valley T.TV

Zinc market hopes get lift from pending closure of Aussie mi

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Hopes for a sharply higher zinc price were lifted Thursday following a report that Australia's Century mine, one of the world's biggest sources of the base metal, will see production decline by up to 31% in 2015, its final year of operation.

“This is very positive news,’’ said Mark Cruise, President and CEO of Trevali Mining Corp. (TSX: T.TV, Stock Forum), a zinc-focused company with one producing operation in Peru and the advanced stage Caribou mine, which is under development in Canada.

Expected mine closures are a key reason why a number of analysts are bullish on the price of zinc.

Patricia Mohr, of Scotiabank, for example, expects the zinc price to average US$1.15 a pound this year, rising to $1.60 in 2016, a move she said will be driven by a deficit of global concentrate.

That’s up from around the US93 cents mark this week.

News of a pending shutdown at the Century mine comes as London Metal Exchange warehouse stocks stand at around 4.5 weeks of global consumption. The tipping point that would be expected to drive zinc prices sharply higher is three weeks, Cruise said.

In the first nine months of 2014, the global refined zinc market recorded a 309,000-tonne deficit, according to the most recent data from industry tracker International Lead and Zinc Study Group, five times the 60,000-tonne deficit of 2013, according to Reuters News Service.

Century mine owner MMG Ltd., the Hong Kong-listed arm of China's state-owned Minmetals Corp, has set production guidance at 320,000-370,000 tonnes of zinc in concentrate in 2015, down 21% to 31% from 465,696 tonnes in 2014.

Canada's big Brunswick and Perseverance mines have already closed, eliminating a combined 335,000 tonnes of zinc, while ageing mines in Europe and Africa are also close to depletion.

“We need Century to close,’’ Cruise said.

Trevali shares were unchanged at $1 Thursday, leaving a market cap of $281.4 million, based on 281.4 million shares outstanding. The 52-week range is $1.41 and 91 cents.
Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2015/01/15/zinc-market-hopes-get-lift-from-pending-closure-aussie-mine#1RhSGB54kzHe2aYM.99