RE:RE:Results Tomorrow6milli wrote: Jackroy wrote: Trend of trades would suggest that tomorrow's results may be disappointing. To me the company should try to manage NATO to b/e or as close as possible. Write Down NATO. Then they should cut the dividend by 25%. finally, they should ride the benefits of the strengthening US$ and the pulp prices. Based on this, I think the stock is a winner. Manage NATO until you can sell it -
Without positive cash flow contribution from NATO a dividend of $0.30 is not sustainable.
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Really - for 2015? How do you figure - here is my math - assuming ZERO contribution from NATO. Please correct me if i'm wrong.
NaCL - $60M
Brazil - $24M
HCL - $25M
FX Gain - $5M (assuming FX hovers around .85 for the year - conservative guess)
Equals = $114M
Interest = $30M
EBITDA after interest = $84M
Maintenance CAPEX = $25M (Debottlenecking initiatives would be capitalized)
EBITDA after interest and Maintenance CAPEXCAPEX = $59M
Current Dividend = 184M shares x .4 = $73.6
Net Defecit = $14.6M
NOW - CUS mentioned they are "just" cashflow positive at 4 trains per week (per the Whistler conference) and come June - they are up to 5.5 trains. Each train is $8M above breakeven so 1.5 x 8M = $12M
Net Defecit = $2.6M
WITHOUT a dividend cut.
Ok - eagar to see your math.
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