Our basher friend LIDLID aka Goober actually ContributedLIDLID got an answer from Jifton on rare earth blog and it wasn't what he wanted to hear:
The HREE market growth is such that Ucore and TRER and RER and Tasman and Northern are not competing with each other. They are all competing with the Chinese HREE supply industry. If all of the non-Chinese companies I just named were to achieve Target production the total would be less than 1000 tons per annum of dysprosium and perhaps 100 tons of terbium. Unless the Chinese both double their current production and also adopt totally free trade the total new production from all of them will be insufficient to meet the 2020 global demand. Prices for HREEs can only go up.
The lowest cost most efficient producers outside of China will get HREE business both inside of and outside of China! TRER is trying CIC/CIX; Ucore is trying MRT; Tasman will stick with modern SX. I’m betting that they will all be successful and that the rest of the world will then have process choices rather than the one-trick pony of traditional SX. I don’t think that you can any longer look at junior rare earth ventures without considering that you need to consider the junior’s choice of process technology before you make the investment.
Jack
- See more at: https://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/texas-rare-earth-resources-in-the-running-to-compete-with-chinese-ionic-clay-sources-of-heavy-rare-earths/#sthash.aeVF3Z9R.dpuf