RE:Could FPF-1 sail early?On the technical side, oil chart may have form a nice W which usually means a steady recovery ahead. On the fundamental side, many factors point to the same:
- The current US and canadian feilds are still flowing but depleting and won't be replaced in the short term with the weekly rig counts falling like that. The US new feilds that flooded the market last year have very fast declining rates, up to 80% a year.
- We are in the spring refineries maintenance season, leading to less oil being processed, and it will end soon.
- US summer driving season is coming.
- The fed did telegraph that rate hikes could be still far away as they are "data sensitive", which lead to a lower USD against commodities in the coming months.
- Obama administration annouced new tougher rules for fracking on friday.
I just talked to a canadian driller and he said to me that oil could climb north of $100 in 2016 as new developements in the buisiness are going to a stall. The excess supply vs demend is about 3%, not that much. A steady climb in crude oil price will surely motivate some works to accelearate, bring confidence and new money in the oil patch. jmo.
Last rig count:
https://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsoverview