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TELESTA THERAPEUTICS INC T.TST

"Telesta Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the research, development, manufacturing and commercialization of human health products and technologies."


TSX:TST - Post by User

Post by beechguyon Mar 25, 2015 11:10pm
306 Views
Post# 23562663

Lets have some Valuation fun...

Lets have some Valuation fun...It's hard to fathom w/ our gruesome chart, but every ridiculous high flier, had a miserable stock chart at some point. Since fantasizing can be fun, here we go... Here's (ir)rationalization for a 214 (yeah I said it) bagger from the .14 all time low (this is for you Rube). If you assume FDA approval happens and (there is no real reason to think it won't - MCNA's efficacy is 150% higher than the already approved Valrubicin with only 1.5% of patients experiencing "mild to moderate side effects" (Valrubicin is > 30%). Lets also assume the independent analysis of 400mm peak revenue in the US is a fair number. (at 45k per patient, that is 8800 patients - only 20% penetration of refractory to BCG patients - who's only real treatment remaining is bladder removal). That is with no off label, no EU, no South America, no Asia and no pre-existing BC patients of which there is 700,000 in North America alone. So really the peak revenue could end up being well over a billion world wide (not a year after FDA approval, but 5 or 6 years in perhaps) So if we had a billion in revenue and used the average of the last several biotech tech deals I read up on, (5 times peak revenue) our valuation could be (assuming 210mm shares O/S and no more dilution - I know a stretch) $24 USD /share ($30 CDN). It all starts when we break through the seemingly impenetrable wall at .40. When it does, thing should get very interesting very fast. Hang in there, it's going to get fun soon methinks. GLTA beech
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