RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Q4 Analysis from a non-Koolaid drinker....
Perhaps I am inferring too much.....However, we do know directly from DCI that some major contracts in Australia, like Casinos, have 'expired'....meaning they lost them to the competition. As well, assuming that competition includes at least some ex-Customers employees, there's a strong chance that more major contracts will 'expire' in the future....Even if they don't 'expire', profitability will suffer as DCI is forced to match or beat the competitions offers. Remember, an ex-employee might know where all the major skeletons and treasures are buried.
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One thing that makes a fully accurate analysis difficult, is that DCI stopped reporting ATM transactions based on region. I thought that was somewhat less than transparent of them. ATM count by itself means very little. I could wallpaper a city like Montreal with 200 ATMs, putting them in every retail operation that has square footage, and the total transaction count still wouldn't equal a fraction of the count of the 10 ATMs in Casino de Montreal.
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I'm not sure competitor results matter to investors that much. They likely don't care what anyone else is doing, so long as DCI is maintaining net profit and providing regular dividends. DCI entered Australia with expectations of reasonable growth, and, in two years, they appear to be heading in the opposite direction. EzeATM stopped the bleeding for now, however, I think the future is questionable. Not that they'll leave the market, but DCI relies heavily on Australia Net Profit to sustain its dividend payments. Will they contribute enough over the next eight quarters to maintain the status quo?
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Even in the near term, remember to factor in $3,000,000++ for EMV upgrade kits for company owned ATMs, plus replacement costs on ATMs that can't be upgraded....I suggest it's going to be a bumpy ride on a slightly downhill slope....
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