GREY:BKSLF - Post by User
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Mining_Engineer_UBCon May 31, 2015 8:03pm
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Post# 23782825
June Forecast Sensitivity Analysis of Ounces to Stock Price
June Forecast Sensitivity Analysis of Ounces to Stock PriceBelow you'll see a table which I hope will post in a readable format. The table shows my take on the probability of various payable gold outcomes for June and the corresponding market response, then summarized with what the stock should trade at if these assumptions are correct. I acknowledge that it is difficult to predict these two variables, so I would recommend using this template to run your own analysis. Also note that I have only controlled for ounces of payable gold. Other factors such as drilling results at Quartz Hill are outside the scope of this analysis. Its worth noting that in my evaluation I have only given BOZ a 30% chance of meeting their target yet it still reflects a valuation of 16 cents. June 2015 Production Troy Ounces Payable: (1) Probability (%): (2) Cash Flow for June (M): (3) Market Cap (M): (4) Stock Price: (5) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 1000 5 -$0.4 $4.3 0.07 1500 10 $0.2 $4.9 0.08 2000 10 $0.8 $5.6 0.09 2500 10 $1.3 $6.8 0.11 3000 15 $1.8 $8.3 0.135 3500 20 $2.3 $10.5 0.17 4000 15 $2.9 $12.3 0.2 4500 10 $3.5 $15. 4 0.25 5000 5 $4.2 $18.5 0.3 Corresponding Stock Price Valuation: 0.16