Re: Lift 1
Raphaelle - You are correct that the most recent supplemental agreement to the IA and the OTLLC Shareholder's Agreement says it relates to Lift 1. And the feasability studies and projected development of the block cave panels into the HNE JV ground is, under those plans, several years beyond the commencement of the initial block caving.
However - what can be agreed can always be modified to mutual advantage. I have believed for several years that the potential near-term value of the high grade core of the HNE has been soft-pedalled by not proposing to mine HNE for several years after commencement of Lift 1, and by diluting the stated reserves by including the higher grade core ore with lower grade mass tonnages which surround it.
The net smelter returns from 4% plus cu. eq., especially if resources to that kind of cut-off are greatly expanded, might justify a conventional stope level mine run in conjuction with a block cave in Lift 1 - at HNE the higher grade core deposit narrows and is almost vertical. Here is an animation showing bot Lift 1 and Lift 2, but also a separate level mine at HNE (watch from about 3:50 mark): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmCWIHaCPng
It makes economic sense for both RioT and Mongolia to want to accelerate higher grades into the concentrator to help repay the capex and get Mongolia retiring their development debts sooner. From RioT's point of view, why would current management leave low-hanging fruit to profit future management if they can access it sooner?
For several years the lift capacity limit of the proposed Lift 1 twin hoists was going to be 25 million tonnes per year. Now with the proposed long decline and hoist capacity there is additional flexibility in the underground development.
I don't think there is anything I am suggesting that the negotiators from all parties haven't been well aware of - they can always change their plans - but what mileage has there been for proposing the best possible outcome when the proposed block cave was robust enough to support a development decision? Especially while ETG still holds 20%, and while TRQ is 49% held by minority shareholders?
The main point is, share price will be driven by projected future earnings, and there is the potential for those earnings to be accellerated and grown by new drill results and an accellerated mining scheme at HNE.
Wait and see I guess.
cg