Fantome
There is a MAJOR flaw in your negative outlook for CPG going forward.
You are making the “assumption” the Q1/15 which was a terrible quarter not only for CPG but the entire industry will “repeat perpetually”.
If I remember correctly you post was titled “Some Simple Arithmetic - Using CPG Financial Statements”
It seems to me that basing the future performance of a company like CPG that has a very long track record on 1 quarterly report is a bit SIMPLISTIC to say the least.
When the Q2/15 results are released they will be SUBSTANTAILLY better.
TD in this mornings “Action Notes” had this to say;
TD Securities Quarterly Estimates for Q2/15
Production
Liquids (bbl/d) 141,984
Gas (mmcf/d) 69.1
Total (BOE/d) 153,497
% Gas 8%
Netback ($/BOE)
Gross Revenue $59.63
Hedge Gain/(Loss) $8.40
Royalties - $9.75
Operating - $12.01
Transportation - $2.25
Operating Netback $44.02
G&A - $1.50
Interest Expense - $2.74
Cash Taxes & Other - $0.00
Cash Flow Netback $39.78
Other
Cash Flow ($mm) $556
CFPS $1.20
E&D Capex ($mm) ($210)
Payout (Post DRIP) 74%
Net Debt ($mm) $4,684
Perhaps we should make the assumption that the Q2 results will “repeat perpetually”.
That won’t work very well. The consequences of the recent acquisitions and bought deal are not fully reflected in these TD “estimates”.
The point is that basing “future performance” on 1 (one) extremely Bad or Good quarter is doomed to fail.
Crescent Point has a very long track record of doing very well in the good times and successfully navigating the bad times. They are in a much better position to weather the current storm which will pass than most of their peers.
As Always, Do Your Own Due Diligence; It’s Your Money !!