patience
A few thoughts...
The Sea Oil deal was clearly fortunate for POE, as it stands now $40 mil for 300bbls/day of declining production with Brent cut in half isn't a deal that Sea Oil would have done in hindsight. Even with another firm well I don't think anyone is holding out much hope for Thailand.
Semantics aside regarding exploration vs appraisal, Batu Gajah has a high chance of hitting the same structure Ramba has the three wells on. We'll have to see the pay zone and flow rates. I've been reading up on the cost recovery pool concept, still not quite sure how to do the sums but basically it seems that company can earn back the capital spent on exploration before revenue is split with the government. $50mil US is virtually all of the company's market cap at this point. My very rough guess is that success at Batu Gajah, defined as 3 wells with metrics similar to Ramba's. would be worth upwards of $100mil.
I am also confused as to whether "Talisman" is obligated to drill Anggun, but whatever obligation would carry over to Repsol. I think they're just calling it Talisman since it's the same cast of characters. Everyone agrees the GCoS on the 3rd party report isn't so great, but given the potential size of the structure relative to the low cost of drilling I don't see any reason to be overly skeptical. It's also unclear whether the GCA report takes into account what POE management is saying about the "proven source kitchen" next door. I suspect not. I wouldn't own POE because of Anggun, but it's still an asset worth having with large potential upside, even if the odds are longish.
Sawn Lake seems to be totally out of the discussion these days, but it's on track for best or even high case. Like the last presentation says, the ongoing maintenence costs are low, and we can afford to wait. I'll be happy to wait until WTI is north of 100 again, and what's Sawn Lake worth then with SAGD demonstrated successful?
Last thought - management and board members are on board. Patience here will be richly rewarded, IMHO.