Eurocontrol Technics Ord EUCTF

GFI valuation

[lscfa]

Does not include revenue that will be derived from other sources

		2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
	New GFI clients o/s	2	4	6	8	10	12	14	16	18
	GFI revenue	5.0	10.0	15.0	20.0	25.0	30.0	35.0	40.0	45.0
	Logistics revenue	10.0	20.0	30.0	40.0	50.0	60.0	70.0	80.0	90.0
	5% royalty (min 1.5)	1.5	1.5	2.3	3.0	3.8	4.5	5.3	6.0	6.8
	Admin, R&D	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)
	net income (loss)	(1.0)	(1.0)	(0.3)	0.5	1.3	2.0	2.8	3.5	4.3
	eps (90 mil shs.)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.003)	0.006	0.014	0.022	0.031	0.039	0.047
	closing cash balance	15.0	14.0	13.8	14.3	15.5	17.5	20.3	23.8	28.0
	cash per sh.	0.17	0.16	0.15	0.16	0.17	0.19	0.23	0.26	0.31
	+ 15x p/e multiple	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.08	0.21	0.33	0.46	0.58	0.71
	fair value (stock price)	0.17	0.16	0.15	0.24	0.38	0.53	0.68	0.85	1.02
	New GFI clients o/s	2	5	8	11	14	17	20	23	26
	GFI revenue	5.0	12.5	20.0	27.5	35.0	42.5	50.0	57.5	65.0
	Logistics revenue	10.0	25.0	40.0	55.0	70.0	85.0	100.0	115.0	130.0
	5% royalty (min 1.5)	1.5	1.9	3.0	4.1	5.3	6.4	7.5	8.6	9.8
	Admin, R&D	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)	(2.5)
	net income (loss)	(1.0)	(0.6)	0.5	1.6	2.8	3.9	5.0	6.1	7.3
	eps (90 mil shs.)	(0.011)	(0.007)	0.006	0.018	0.031	0.043	0.056	0.068	0.081
	closing cash balance	15.0	14.4	14.9	16.5	19.3	23.1	28.1	34.3	41.5
	cash per sh.	0.17	0.16	0.17	0.18	0.21	0.26	0.31	0.38	0.46
	+ 15x p/e multiple	n/a	n/a	0.08	0.27	0.46	0.65	0.83	1.02	1.21
	fair value (stock price)	0.17	0.16	0.25	0.45	0.67	0.90	1.15	1.40	1.67