On 3 year chart, AC is at most oversold levelThis is the only dip below 40 and shows a number of 38.70 and trading at the bottom trend line on the 3 year chart currently sitting at a critical level. Long story short, Ultimately if the bull market resumes this has alot of upside, If we enter a bear market then we are in trouble.
In my personal opinion I think the real catalyst here is where the market goes. The last 2 big drops you see AC's long term uptrend had an upward market to reinforce the price movement. Right now multiple markets are in correction territory, and 2 asian markets are sitting at critical levels on their respective long term uptrends.
Ultimately AC is sitting in bearish territory as we are greater than 20% off the high. If the world market goes bearish then there could be some significant downside. Although we are close to oversold near term, there could be more downside depending on what the market decides to do. This is me speaking from a technical perspective of course.
GDP growth across North American ultimately tells a different story. Since the airline sector grows inline with GDP figures and they are expected to remain positive, I see the current market state merely as a correction, especially when you consider Canada is showing resiliency in a low oil price environment. That said, take this with a grain of salt. Markets rarely trade inline with economic performance. Take China for instance. With a market up over 100% in a year with GDP slowing down, a 40% correction is modest in my opinion.