RE:RE:Watching, not buyingQtly CFPS (FD) (Next Release: Jan-16)
Year
2013A $0.12A $0.07A $0.04A $0.00A $0.23
2014A $0.10A $0.25A $0.16A $0.17A $0.69
2015E $0.11A $0.11A $0.06A $0.07 $0.35
2016E $0.03 $0.03 $0.07 $0.06 $0.19
Industry Specific
2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Copper Price (US$/lb) $3.33 $3.12 $2.55 $2.50
Copper C1 Co-product Cash Cost (US$/lb) $0.97 $1.38 $1.69
Copper Production (Mlb) 48 196 141 101
Zinc Price (US$/lb) $0.87 $0.98 $0.89 $0.90
Zinc C1 Co-product Cash Cost (US$/lb) $0.00 $0.68
Zinc Production (Mlb) 0 0 0 87
Mar Jun Sep Dec
Net Asset Value: $3.89 Price/NAV: 0.71x
Capitalization
Market Cap (M) C$778
Net Debt + Pref. (M) $-455
Enterprise Value (M) C$146
Shares O/S (M) 203
Float O/S (M) 196
Control Blocks
Vanguard Group Inc.
Voting Interest 19.4%
Equity Interest 19.4% Source: Global Insight, Inc.
Valuation: 50/50 mix of 5.0x 2016E EV/EBITDA & 0.9x Mine Site NAV8% + 1.0x Net Cash
Items
Key Risks: Commodity price, operating, and technical risks, environmental and
legal risks
Financial Analysis
December-31 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E
10-14 14-16
Average Growth
Per-Share Data (FD)
Adj Earnings $-0.03 $0.73 $0.72 $0.06 $0.47 $0.16 $0.03 -76.7%
Cash Flow $-0.02 $0.89 $1.28 $0.23 $0.69 $0.35 $0.19 -47.5%
Dividends (Basic) $0.00 $0.00 $0.10 $0.14 $0.14 $0.16 $0.16 3.8%
Book Value (Basic) $1.11 $2.48 $3.11 $3.05 $3.39 $3.39 $3.37 -0.2%
Shares O/S (M) 187.1 200.3 207.5 210.4 211.8 210.8 210.8 -0.3%
Valuation Ratio
Price/Earnings n.m. 7.6x 5.9x 51.7x 8.2x 16.8x n.m.
Price/Cash Flow n.m. 6.3x 3.3x 14.6x 5.6x 7.9x 14.5x
Yield 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 4.2% 3.7% 5.8% 5.6% 2.1%
Dividend Payout 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 217.5% 30.6% 97.4% n.m. 52.4%
Price/Book 6.8x 2.2x 1.4x 1.1x 1.1x 0.8x 0.8x 2.5
Profitability
Revenues (M) $0 $548 $566 $152 $610 $428 $332 -26.3%
Adjusted EBITDA (M) $-6 $255 $253 $37 $185 $85 $40 -53.5%
EBITDA Margin n.m. 46.5% 44.7% 24.7% 30.3% 19.8% 12.0%
Income Tax Rate 0.0% 0.0% 38.4% 50.8% 40.3% 41.3% 60.6% 25.9%
Net Income (M) $-13 $147 $145 $9 $93 $30 $5 -75.9%
Net Margin n.m. 26.8% 25.7% 5.8% 15.3% 7.0% 1.6%
Return on Equity n.m. 40.6% 25.8% 2.1% 14.6% 4.8% 0.8%
Debt Analysis
Current Ratio 3.8x 3.0x 6.6x 9.6x 9.3x 8.1x 8.5x 6.5
EBITDA/Int. Exp n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.
LTD/(LTD+Equity) 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0
Tot. Debt/(Tot.Dbt+Eq.) 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0
Capital Structure
Total Assets (M) $356 $775 $874 $871 $987 $1,016 $1,047 3.0%
Working Capital (M) $50 $273 $398 $419 $520 $503 $558 3.6%
Long-Term Debt (M) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Preferreds (M) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Common Equity (M) $207 $497 $620 $609 $677 $677 $705 2.1%
Total Capital (M) $327 $607 $763 $768 $833 $835 $853 1.2%
Enterprise Value (M) $1,348 $768 $489 $397 $377 $128 $74 -55.6%