RE:The telegraph- articalThanks for the citation 1 health. Below I reproduced the passage you were referring to as well as what was written before and after for everyone's easy reference. Recession or not the current market turbulence bodes well for healthcare and other defensive stocks. I hold another significant position in Northwest Healthcare Properties for the same reason (NWH.UN), a global reit with healthcare properties in Canada, Germany, Australia and Brazil. Yield is just over 9% and AFFO is trending downward in this low interest rate environment. My non-managed portfolio is weighted 90% in healthcare. That is my bet over the next couple of years and I feel increasingly comfortable with it given the collapse in commodities and potential for a global recession. GLTA except Nutbar aka as Notwrong!
"To paraphrase Nobel prize-winning US economist Paul Samuelson, Wall Street has predicted nine out of the last five recessions, but the current turbulence has an ominous precedent.
Over the last 45 years, the S&P500 has suffered a loss of more than 12.5pc on 13 occasions. Six of these have given way to a recession in the US, providing a near 50pc probability that a global downturn is just around the corner.
In Europe, stocks have now fallen by 10pc in the last six months.
“Of the 14 previous occasions equities have had a similar decline, seven have been associated with recession, with lacklustre returns thereafter,” says Dennis Jose at Barclays.
He notes investors have begun to pile into “defensive” stocks, such as healthcare and consumer industries.
“The weighting in defensives has increased to the highest levels seen since 1980 suggesting that investors may have already embraced the risk of a recession.”