and then there's Iran Iranian production isn't part of todays proposed agreement. In fact, the Country eventually intends to produce at their recent levels - before embargos, and why wouldn’t they argue they are entitled to that.
From Wiki:
- In 2004 Iran produced 5.1 percent of the world’s total crude oil (3.9 million barrels <> per day)
- In 2012, Iran, which exported around 1.5 million barrels of crude oil a day, was the second-largest exporter among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
- Iran plans to invest a total of $500 billion in the oil sector before 2025.
From Bloomberg article a few months ago”
“Zanganeh has repeatedly said Tehran would increase its production by 1 million barrels a day within weeks of the end of the sanctions, expected to be lifted sometime during the first half of 2016. The IEA estimates that within six months of sanctions ending, Tehran could bring daily production to 3.6 million barrels—or about 800,000 barrels a day above current production. That would mark Iran’s highest level of crude output since 2011.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-05/iranian-oil-goes-back-on-the-market While the US and Israel have concerns about Iranian politics and politicians, Europe may well want to consider the options of having an additional source for their oil and gas supplies and the routes should point towards Iran and Saudi, just in case something goes south with supply from Russia.
JMHO.