Commercial Production at Caribou I know we've beaten this to death, but I thought the disclosure on Caribou yesterday was lacking, but I guess we’ll get a better picture of Caribou in the next 2 weeks as they update Q1 production at both mines.
Management acknowledged that 70% of design capacity for a period of time was the determining factor for declaring Commercial Production. Just to clarify, CP simply means that they start depreciating the asset once CP is declared, and that revenues (and associated costs) from shipments start going to the P&L. Before commercial production is declared, costs associated with ramping up the mill get capitalized, and revenues from concentrate produced & sold are netted against the capitalized costs. The presumption is that the operation is currently not profitable yet because they there are not sufficient pounds of Zn & lead concentrate produced to absorb all the fixed costs, so per-pound production costs are higher than the current metal prices. Hence, the operation is currently losing money. That said, it is still interesting to note that tpd milled during Feb were > 70% of the 3,000 tpd capacity, and that Zn and lead recoveries of 73% and 60%, respectively, were >70% of the 84% and 65% recoveries in the Caribou PEA. The CEO acknowledged that it was all about recoveries.
So, it seems that while 70% of design capacity & recoveries has been achieved, management wants to WAIT to declare CP until recoveries are higher and the production costs decrease so that the mine makes money. If, for example, Zn and lead prices were doubled to US$1.60/lb, I’m sure Caribou would be making money - even at its current level of operations. In this case, I’m sure management would have rushed to declare commercial production ASAP, so that it could report added earnings and cash flow. Same level of operations, but different CP declaration dates - - this seems like manipulation to me.
Personally, I would rather have seen CP declared when they achieved 70% of design capacity & recoveries - even if they’re losing money. (We know the mine is burning cash anyway, so that's no surprise). Then, management could have explained that when Caribou approaches design mill throughput & recoveries over the next 3 months, costs are expected to decrease substantially to $XX/lb., and that when they finally get the copper/gold circuit added, costs are further expected to decrease from $XX/lb to $YY/lb. I think would have been better disclosure. Shareholders would something to hang their hats on. Right now, we're all left hanging - hence the stock has no direction whatsoever. Anyway, let’s see what they report on Caribou in the next 2 weeks.