Thoughts On EIA Report The EIA weekly petroleum report showed a 6.6 million barrel crude increase. I'm actually quite happy with the report. If you peel back the onion it actually looks like the market is re balancing nicely.
For example, if we look at crude input to refineries we see the number is 15.941 million barrels for this week. The 4 week average for the same week in 2015 is 15.850, or the same week in 2015 (not 4 week average) would be 16.212. So that looks slightly positive, but more less the same. But now if we look at products supplied we see that this week the number is 19.987 million. The 4 week average for the same week in 2015 was 19.073, or the same week in 2015 (not 4 week average) would be 18.995. There was also a 31,000 production decrease in the US this week, X that by 52 and we get 1.612 million (if that trend were to continue for 1 year).
Conclusion: We have about 800,000 less barrels of crude a day now then we did a year ago in the US. We have rapid production decline. Plus a potential freeze from a couple of the worlds largest producers. It really does seem very promising all-round.