RE:RE:More HUB from iiiGreat point Doug, and another major mistake:
"Production has dropped by around 30% over the last 8 months. 12.5k to 9k as of today. These fields will continue to fall gradually, some faster than others...it suggests that the current producing folio is likely to drop by around 30% again over the 12 month period."
"Ithaca have not given a clear guidance on 2016 production estimates" He doesn't consider the 57 million barrels 2P reserves, that we have to translate from USD to CAD before deducing the debt, which will be closer to 600 million once Stella starts.
From the 2015 Financial Results NR:
2016 Production guidance As previously guided, base production in 2016, excluding any contribution associated with start-up of the Stella field during the year, is anticipated to be approximately 9,000 boepd (95% oil). This reflects the cessation of production from the Athena and Anglia fields...and restricted production rates for the Pierce field in the first half of 2016 due to the need to complete remedial works on the subsea gas injection flowline.
Production in the first quarter of 2016 is forecast to average approximately 9,000 boepd. This reflects acceleration of the planned 2016 Pierce field maintenance shutdown into the quarter in order to take advantage of the current period of restricted production rates noted above and reduced production from the Dons fields for execution of a well chemical treatment campaign.
Year-End Reserves
Total proved and probable (“2P”) reserves at 31 December 2015, as independently assessed by Sproule International Limited ("Sproule"), a qualified reserves evaluator, plus estimated reserves associated with the Vorlich licence are 57 million barrels of oil equivalent (“Mmboe”).