RE:RE:Tesla Needs Unprecedented Quantities of CobaltYep. I caught that too. This has been an ongoing point. If cobalt suppliers don't react, Cobalt users will shy away. Like anything else, price goes up, market reacts. However, cobalt is so cheap now, the short term is safe... say the next 4 years. Expect a take-off agreement from Panasanic (Tesla) for Cobalt, to make cheap and performant batteries (say for the next 5 years). Note, non-cobalt battery solutions are distinctly inferrior in performance. Also, we should expect many suppliers coming on line once the EV explosion starts reaching substantial numbers, especially of course when copper and nickle rebound.
However, Tesla needs a back-up plan. If Cobalt drives up the price of batteries, they may will find other types of batteries. I would be more conscerned if I had FT (Fortune Metals) stock. They need 4 years just to build a road, and then once it is approved. They are probably 5-8 years away from producing anything. By that time, Cobalt prices will have surged, and recoiled already.
One also needs to keep in mind that the cobalt turn-around was anticipated to occur well before Tesla's gigafactory was even a glint in Musk's eye.
The last paragraph of the attached article: "That said, most lithium-ion battery chemistries use substantial amounts of cobalt, so it is unlikely that the market will shift entirely away from cobalt anytime soon."
Substitution effects?
Substitution may be a better long-term solution than scouring the earth for limited cobalt supplies. There are already efforts to produce different types of battery chemistries that don’t rely on cobalt or other relatively rare metals and minerals.
CRU, an information service for mining and related activities, projects an undersupply of cobalt globally from 2015 onward. With the potential for Tesla and other EV and stationary battery manufacturers possibly straining cobalt supplies in the coming few years, let alone in the long term in a more serious way, there may well be a shift away from cobalt-intensive batteries.
Rebecca Gordon of CRU states in a 2015 piece that several R&D efforts for new and improved batteries “are well advanced and are not planning on using cobalt, so the concern is that if one or two [of these non-cobalt battery] projects come to market in the next two to three years, Tesla could switch from cobalt to one of the other chemistries relatively easily.”
That said, most lithium-ion battery chemistries use substantial amounts of cobalt, so it is unlikely that the market will shift entirely away from cobalt anytime soon.