what am i missing
be careful of overly exuberant posters on here, most of them only see the positives here and a couple of them live in fantasy land, lol. I'll let them deal with the positives but obviously a large increase in production in the future is the biggest. now I will recap some negatives, which a lot of them hate seeing repeated, lol, which makes my day, HAHAHA
- lets start with the hedges they go on about, they have been great and saved iae over the past 2 years, however, what's left is not what it was and is not all oil. basically about half of is nat gas puts. now till dec. 31/2016 is 9400 boed hedged at $58, of which only 48% is oil the rest nat gas puts, which is about 4500 bod hedged at 58 the rest of the oil being market priced . jan1- june 31/2017 they have 7000 boed hedged at 60, of which 50% is oil the rest nat gas puts, so 3500 bod hedged at 60 the rest, including future stella production, is not hedged and subject the whims of the market. this is one of the main reasons we see this sell off in iae.
- management over the past few years has lost a lot of credibility with timelines and production guidance, so beware anything they state especially when they claim what costs will be post stella, that we will not know until stella actually produces for a couple of quarters, however the fantasy land lot will claim their word is gospel, lmao, and one of even thinks we will have oild over 100 and up to 150 within a year.
- reserve life is very low and will actuially be less than 3 yrs on stella if they managed to produce at max. (16k net to ithaca) which will be impossible to do due to decline rates. so pretty much right after stella gets on stream they need to get with a strong exploration program which will be expensive. to me this stella is just a bigger athena which has been a disaster for them. recently shut down after just starting in 2012, production has dropped to just over 9k from over 12k in the past year.
- last 2 q's have been good as they manged to lower debt abit, however, this q i would expect debt to creep back up a bit due added expenses of setting up POFS-1, and also the pricing of the oil which is not hedged has been lower.
- people are crowing geekowing about a takeout by delek or another major. I don't belioeve anyone is interested in taking out this POFS with their reserves so low and debt high, also the banks are looking a little shakier these days so rbl's etc will be scrutinized even more and debt will become harder to access.
short to medium iae should see some decent upside as long as oil doesn't totally crater again, which is a possibility, although slim, also another significant delay would tank the price a fair bit. a very risky stock to be sure. i added 30k today at .99 to trade and still have my initial purchase from .60. I will be out hopefully before stella pukes out oil. my outlook on oil is for lower prices than most on here expect, so my view is different from most, I think it will settle eventually maybe mid 50ish with a trading range between 40 and 60. i don't think that's enough for iae to be successful long term so long term i still think iae will blow itself up and be wall paper, their execution has been brutal in the past and I don't see much reason for that to not continue.
cheers ferret