sentiment still negative....but not for long.---this last harrah may last for about a month, here's why
---Mid-Aug. (earlier than usual) refiners will have their planned shutdown for maintenance etc./change over from gasoline
---demand from the refiners will tank (maintenance) plus surprisingly lack of demand from driving/consumers.
---increase in inventories due to the double whammy of lack of demand from the sources noted above.
---mini slowdown in Japanese & European economies until QE sets in (lag affect...3 months)
---Fed rate increase especially if it is a surprise in Sept. or not in Dec. will crater stocks & jump start a mini recession which leads to continued lack of demand. Lower demand/prices for longer. $50. by the end of the year if we are lucky. I wouldn't expect more.
---capex will not increase until oil gets above $60. & shows that it can stay there. This is not me saying that it is what industry pros are saying.
All this pass though & by the end of 4thQ should show improvement in draw downs (demand) from inventory (laNina may help with that) & QE affect will be seen to be working arpound the world.
---BREXIT will be negotiated away like all the other threats by various countries to leave. Look at the record. The EU has ALWAYS conceded & they will in the UK's case as the UK is worth more to the EU than... Greece is/was for example.
---what about China? They have been minding their Ps & Qs & slowly readjusting their economy to the new reality by working off inventory stockpiles & soon they will start to consume again.
---with the stock market corrrection behind us (by Dec.) because of afore-mentioned events having happened, the decks will have been cleared for 2017.
---still cautious capex & M&A will be the order of the day until the end of 2017 IMO
carlos