chinese PMI tonight @ 9:00It kills me how many posters here claim to know with certainty how low oil will go. Recall when oil fell below $30, everyone jumped on the "oil is going to $20 (or below)" bandwagon. Now everyone is so sure oil will go to $35 (or lower). Certainly there are some known headwinds but the question is whether these known factors are baked into the current price? Also for every known factor there are much bigger unknown potentials. IMO $35 is the new $20 - the low that everyone is calling for that won't happen. Despite all the current noise, oil fundamentals are much stronger than they were at this time last year - despite persistent high inventory levels, supply and demand are in balance and provided there is no global recession (you can never rule this out), we are headed to a deficit. However the magnitude of the deficit and speed at which we get there is unknown, but inventories will recede.
Certainly we could break $40 this week but we could just as easily bounce to $45. Chinese PMI is released tonight and the expectation is for 50. A significant beat or miss will likely be a good indicator of which way crude goes this week.
I have most of the "know-it-alls" here on ignore because if they really knew what they claim to know they wouldn't be wasting their time posting on Stockhouse, they would be on the golf course or their yacht.