RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:genscape reports cushing draw for w/e 9/23orlandofl wrote: d_trump wrote: d_trump wrote: you're welcome....it will be good to get this OPEC meeting behind us and focus on what really matters. My personal opinion is that I have no clue whether anything will be agreed upon in Algiers, anything is possible: But regardless I expect oil prices to be green this week as long as inventory numbers continue their bullish trend:
1. No deal: prices will dip to 42-43 but then rebound back above 45 by the end of the week
2. No solid deal, but bullish spin: minor dip but 46-47 by end of week
3. Cut or freeze: pop to 48-50, but then retreat to 46-47
It would seem this prediction is playing out (we seem to be somewhere between scenario 1 and 2 as there has been some bullish chatter and mention of further discussions down the road and as long as the EIA confirms the API data). We closed last Friday at around 44.60, so green on the week still seems likely since we now have Algiers out of the way. Whether BTE keeps pace or not, well that is anoher matter.....
the question is if the rout on canadian oil stocks is going to stop or not - oil has been range bound, but between shorting and some longs scared off, Canadian oil stocks have dipped over 20% over the last month with no real change to the price of oil
Most likely Energy Sector weightings are being reduced - that might account for the obvious disconnect between the price of oil and energy stocks. Possibly this is due to the expectation that Algiers would not bear fruit and cause a sell off, so now that its past us, possibly we get a bounce?