My Experience Today & Synopsis (i.e. THE SHAKE OUT)Beginnging with the daily events from my view:
It went poorly for me today as I failed to capitalize on the volatility, but all things said and done I'm a happy investor as always. I predicted late last night before bed cgc would run to either 5.13 as a 61.8% extension of the last run or 5.75 as 100% extension. I firmly became convinced in the morning it was going to be the latter when the snoop dogg news came out. So how did I do well considering I predicted almost the exact top? I had to teach between 930 and 1130, and for some reason (i.e. being a complete tard) I didn't put in a sell order because with my wishful thinking I thought I'd have an opportunity to sell it myself after the class. I was wrong... I came out of the class extremely disappointed to realize I basically missed making my annual salary within that 2 hr span. So at this point emotion kicks in and rationalization based on experience and knowledge departs. I sold my shares at 5.38. I then immediately kicked myself for not waiting for the 'dead cat bounce' (cgc's climb to 5.60). Instead I waited and waited and once again emotion kicks in and I prematurely jump back into OGI disregarding any technical info. My phone died, I took subway home and immediately opened the investment hub and I got online just in time to see the death and destruction unfold before my eyes. Remember I'm in OGI bought in at like 2.30. I turned on TD to see the price had already dropped to 2.20 and when the blood spilled from the wound I couldn't help but laugh (in an insane kind of way lol). I figured fu*k it I'm not going down easy: So with a spare 15k I had I bought CGC at 4.60, sold that in the 5.00s; OGI bounced so I escaped in the 2.00s ( BRUTAL LOSS); cgc fell low again so I bought it all in at 4.70, sold at 5 again; I felt like I was on fire, and I was looking for more, so what do I do? I buy Mettrum (first time in my life btw) from 3.40 to 3.60. I saw a lot of damage had been done already and it was real close to the bollinger band even far surpassing the bottom of the band, and before I could sell a bounce, the game was over. So thats me right now.... all in in Mettrum right now lol...... At the end of the day I had gained $1,000 bucks, which imo is a loss given I should have been able to walk away with $20k, and also got out with 8k but I got the best of myself and had it washed away.
Big Picture
So what now? Maybe a more practical topic. In short I think we have a healthy consolidation. The interesting queston is what kind? If you look at stocks like Aurora or Supreme, they've had very similar runs as we've had in COMA over the past week. Look at both of these stocks at the end of August. Sharp rise next day rose again, then deadly fall. What happens the next day? They are back on their feet!!! They then gradually rise for a month, hit mid September and wham, major spike/crash, then... continually rise.. and whats that? wham another spike/crash.
At first I thought this crash was brutal, maybe something big, but the more I put my fear aside the more I realize... its just a shake out. Tomorrow morning people are going to be scared, but I bet by the end of the day it will be green, or a doji, or something of the sort. The context for this sector is different than in the past, legalization isn't a pipe dream, its here! Next year - starting with fireworks possibly in November. People want in, thats what this week proves. If not for shorts this stock would probably already be at $15 bucks. Hence the shorts aren't playing a long game imo. They want quick shake outs and then go long. Hell, CGC is in $5 range for institutional range and other LPs aren't far behind at all, MT in $4s, APH in $4, OGI and ACB will be flying their as soon as smoke hits the legislators. You want to be short? Ha. This is the scariest time to be short and when the longs realize its a shake out they will flood the stock and well be back to dancin.
Now tomorrow. Tomorrow really doesn't matter, but I'll predict this. Anxious people will act in the morning and its likely shorts will cover by the end of the day. Do yourself a huge favor and don't sell during the crashes. You'll get sh1t all for your shares and the bounce backs will frustrate the hell out of you. After tomorrow I think the shake out will be over and the dust will settle by next week. The shake out is a solid play, it had to happen in some ways, but like I said its Oct, there is no major lull ahead and no major short play.
You should optimize this opportunity. I suggest if you have any friends interested this will be the calm before the real storm. Rally your friends and tell them the time to buy is between now and the end of Oct. i know I have some friends and family eager but I told them to wait for the cooldown, that is happening now so I am glad I told them to wait. I willbe telling the to buy over the next couple of trading days.
So, that concludes tonights special. I hope people find this helpful and most of all, I hope it helps them make money! Get use to these shake outs. We will have a lot of them over the next year and as the gains go up faster they will only become potentially more volatile. So my friends, with that I shall bid you adieu.