RE:RE:Points for discussion on the Macroeconomics of Uranium...Discussing point 13 .....
So if you take the recent news release by EFR, that states there is 1 Billion pounds in world inventories ( down from 2.9 Billion in 1990 ) as accurate and divide by the 2016 estimated consumption ~ 63,400 tonnes you get 7.2 years of supply in inventory for all the reactors that are operating in 2016. This estimate doesn't take into account the expected growth rate of consumption of 3% to 6 % per year ( growth rate range put out by various ANALysts we read ) which means the remaining inventory will last less than the 7.2 year average.
But really, taking into account point 13 the operators need to replenish an average of 5.2 years from now or else they are out of fuel in 2023-2024.
And since 7.2 years is an average there must be a bunch that are getting close to needing to sign contracts.
All this hinges on that EFR estimate of 1 B inventory of course.
my opinion - we should see the supply shortfall ramp up in 2017-18 and if the 1B is accurate - IT WILL GO CRAZY.
GL - B2S2