RE:Top acquisition target Auburn2, TGZ has their hands full now so I doubt they'd target AGG and as a fairly substantial AGG shareholder a mostly cash deal would not get my interest at all. I'd prefer a mutually accretive all stock deal that has lot's of potential upside for both parties.
FWIW I think a AGG-AVK combination would be a very interesting transaction. If AVK's warrants were excercised they'd have > $25MM+ CAD in cash (including current cash in the treasury). If most of AGG's outstanding warrants were excercised you'd have another $5MM+ to boot. Add in a modest $25MM - $30MM USD in debt financing and that would be more than enough cash to get Kobada into production at 50K - 60K ozs per year and drill up addtional reserves.
If you upped that debt financing to $50MM USD you could basically double Kobada's production to 100K+ oz per year. Based on that level of production Kobada would free cash flow approx $40MM+ USD per year based on a $1200 POG which would greatly assist AVK's Kalana getting into production with minimal dilution excepting the acquisition cost for AGG.
I'd be willing to tender my AGG shares to AVK for 14 - 15 cents a share given the huge potential upside for a combined entity. If AVK could get their SP back up to 30 cents (should be easily doable assuming the markets improve a bit in the new year) they could have AGG by issuing 140MM - 150MM shares or so. That's not a lot of dilution if you had a clear path forward to a 300K - 400K oz per year Mali based producer. My guess is AVK will have to raise an additional $60MM - $80MM CAD to be able to debt finance the rest of Kalana's required $200MM USD CAPEX. That's like 200MM - 250MM shares of dilution just for the Kalana project.
I suspect the threat of major dilution is one of the key reason's both AGG and AVK trade at such a huge discount to their respective NPV's.
IMO, an AGG - AVK transaction would provide a definte re-set in valuations for both.
What's 300K - 400K oz per year with good deposit economics and lot's of blue sky worth to a BTO, EDV or Randgold???
Assuming 300K oz per year of production for the combined entity, an average AISC of $700 USD per oz and a $1200 POG we're talking $150MM USD per year of free cash flow. Further assuming a conservative valuation (given this is Mali after all) of 3X's annual cash flow you'd have a market cap of $450MM USD or approx. $600MM CAD which is more than $1 per share based on merged newco shares outstanding of 550MM shares or so.
Not saying this will happen but IMO it presents an interesting "what if" scenario.
GLTA