Feeble baselines. A mere $148M LTM/ $160M analysts. WRONG!Q1 will be a dog. But, we are more like a 80 pound dog vs. a 20 pound dog. Sorry, lame analogy.
The French mill downtime costs $8M. The power generation is lower in the cold period... I've said this before. But the new normal for a 'good quarter' is $55M +/- 10% and the new normal for a 'bad quarter'.....
is going to be decided in January.
The 'street' needs TMB to have bad quarters of $25M to justify their s**t estimates. Is this the case? B/c a meagre $160M a year means the price should only be $3.10 a share at 6x. Um, TD Sean, think you'd better raise.
But what if a bad quarter new norm is $42 like I think? Call it +/- 10%. Give then 2 bads and 2 goods a year. Call it $194 a year. Same math as above, but we are going to see $5.14 a share and fast.
The verdict is right. Who is correct? The bears at $160M a year? Or the bigger dogs at ~$190 a year? We shall find out in January.
