OTCPK:TMBMF - Post by User
Comment by
dosperroson Jan 14, 2017 5:55pm
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Post# 25708845
RE:Week of Jan 9th in Review
RE:Week of Jan 9th in ReviewThis is good.
Speaking of lumber, who is the best play right now?
I'm going to build a sizeable margin postion on WFT I've decided, until TMB is in the $3.00 range. Just based on my surppus margin account room. I have can't margin things under $2.00 so I've had some feverish money moving thanks to WEF and the like when they close below two.
Why I ask is WFT coming in Q3 at over $200M. That is crazy. With a market cap of $3.5B and an EV of ~$4.0 it is fairly valued now assuming a hellish SLA outcome. But if we don't have that come down the pipe... look out. We could see better lumber prices I like the torque WFT has to that. Trading in the range of 4x is crazy for the undisputed heavyweight champion of SPF and SYP. I still like TMB as a main vehicle for delivering 500%+ returns by 2019 or so, but I could do with an 'easy' and 'safe' 80% return in the mean time if WFT goes the way I think it will.
Canfor is cheap but I am not onboard with their strategy.
I built a table looking at last Q EBITDAs vs. total value. WFT was cheaper than RFP even. TMB is cheaper than both obviously.